The future development trends and directions of wind turbines are analyzed as follows:
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Fans are mainly applied in various fields of the national economy such as metallurgy, petrochemical, power, urban rail transit, textile, and shipping, as well as in ventilation and air exchange in various places. In addition to traditional application fields, there will still be considerable development prospects in more than 20 potential market areas such as comprehensive utilization of coal gangue, technological transformation of new dry-process clinker, energy conservation and comprehensive utilization of resources in the metallurgical industry.
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With the continuous intensification of competition in the wind turbine manufacturing industry, mergers and acquisitions, as well as capital operations among large wind turbine manufacturing enterprises, are becoming increasingly frequent. Leading domestic wind turbine manufacturing enterprises are paying more and more attention to the research of the industry market, especially in-depth studies on the industrial development environment and product purchasers. It is precisely for this reason that a large number of leading domestic fan brands have rapidly risen and gradually become the leaders in the fan manufacturing industry!
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Predict based on the characteristics of fan demand
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For the widely used small and medium-sized fans, the product structure and manufacturing process are relatively simple, and the cost is also low. What users mainly pursue are high efficiency, low noise, long service life, and low price. Another type is capital and technology-intensive, with complex product structures, long manufacturing cycles, strong sets and systems. Moreover, it operates under high pressure, high temperature and high speed conditions, and some even operate under harsh working conditions. Users have different requirements for this type of fan. For turbine blowers, compressors and large ventilators, what users mainly pursue are high quality, high reliability, smooth operation and long service life.
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Predict the demand structure from the main fields
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General ventilation and air exchange fans (typically small and medium-sized centrifugal and axial flow fans) are widely used, have a high demand, and are produced by many manufacturers. Overall, the supply of such products exceeds the demand. Although the demand for special-purpose fans (including anti-corrosion fans, high-temperature fans, wear-resistant fans, fire smoke exhaust fans, etc.) is not large, due to the special working environment, they need to be treated differently because the main material requirements are rather special. The most prominent feature of Roots blowers is that when the pressure is adjusted within the allowable range, the flow rate changes very little. They have a wide range of pressure selection and the characteristic of forced gas delivery. The main drawback is that they produce relatively high noise.
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Through the introduction of technology, joint ventures and independent development, China has launched three-leaf Roots blowers with relatively low noise, which are quite popular among users and have a promising market prospect. Turbine compressors (including centrifugal compressors, axial flow compressors and axial-flow-centrifugal compound compressors) are important equipment in major engineering complete sets of facilities and play a significant role in the national economy. The performance requirements for turbine compressors include both high pressure and large flow rate. With the large-scale development of complete sets of equipment, the parameters of turbine compressors are required to be increasingly higher. Such as blast furnace smelting units, large-scale coal chemical plants, large-scale fertilizer plants, large-scale ethylene plants, large-scale air separation units, natural gas pipeline transportation units and oilfield gas injection units, etc. The demand for this type of product accounts for a small proportion of the total number of fans. However, due to its significance, complex structure, long manufacturing cycle and high technical content, it has relatively good economic and social benefits. The manufacturing level of turbine compressors encompasses the overall level of the fan industry.
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Based on the domestic market capacity forecast
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Fans vary greatly depending on different requirements such as pressure and flow rate. Therefore, the demand for fans should be differentiated according to their types and sizes, and predicted based on the demand conditions of different industries. According to incomplete statistics, the average annual growth rate of the national fan output was 13.8% from 1980 to 1996.
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It is estimated that the total output of wind turbines in China will be between 2.6 million and 2.9 million units in 2005, and will reach 3.1 million to 3.25 million units in 2010. According to the statistics of the fan industry over the years, it is predicted that the output of centrifugal compressors will be 1.6 to 1.8 million units in 2005 and reach 2 to 2.1 million units in 2010. The output of axial flow compressors was 260,000 units in 2005 and is expected to reach 360,000 units in 2010. The market share of turbine compressors and blowers could reach about 70% in 2005.
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Forecast from foreign markets
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In 2000, the member units of the China General Machinery Fan Industry Association exported 7,969 fans, with a delivery value of 81.117 million yuan. From 1991 to 2000, the total number of exported wind turbines was 72,876 units, and the total value of exported delivery was 747.26 million yuan.
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The trend of global economic integration is becoming increasingly evident. The economies of various countries will further become interdependent. International economic cooperation and exchanges are becoming increasingly close. The international market is in a stage of significant intersection and integration. Meanwhile, the pace of global industrial structure adjustment is accelerating, and significant progress has been made in both the scale and depth of international division of labor. Developed countries are constantly shifting their industrial production towards capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries, while labor-intensive products are being transferred to developing countries and regions. This provides a great development opportunity for our country to give full play to its own advantages and enter the international market.
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Since the 1970s, China has begun to introduce advanced foreign centrifugal compressor technology. Through digestion, absorption and innovation, the product grade has been improved. As long as the quality and delivery time are guaranteed and the price advantage is utilized, it will be competitive internationally. Especially after China's accession to the WTO, it is entirely possible to increase the export of wind turbines. Based on historical analysis, the main export varieties are small and medium-sized ventilators and fan parts. The main gap among domestic enterprises that produce this type of fan is that the surface quality fails to meet the export requirements. If the appearance quality is improved and they have a price advantage, the prospects in the foreign market will be broad. From the perspective of fan exports from 1991 to 2000, the exports of small and medium-sized ventilators were not stable enough and showed no obvious growth trend. However, with the continuous advancement of technology, it is expected that the export volume of such fans will keep increasing, and it is predicted that it will grow at an average annual rate of about 5% based on the year 2000.
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The export of centrifugal compressors and blowers increased significantly from 1991 to 2000, reaching 870,000 units in 2000. The main export destinations are developing countries such as India, Pakistan, Iran and Vietnam. It is expected that this trend will continue to develop, reaching up to one million units annually.
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From January to December 2012, the national output of wind turbines reached 21.6235 million units, increasing by 1.39% year-on-year. From the perspective of output in various provinces and cities, from January to December 2012, the output of fans in Zhejiang Province reached 11.5212 million units, increasing by 4.54% year-on-year, accounting for 53.28% of the national total output. Following closely behind are Guangdong Province, Shanghai Municipality and Jiangsu Province, accounting for 34.01%, 4.82% and 2.80% of the total output respectively.
